Dear Mr. Kooijman,
- I am no longer sure what you mean by "inferential
statistics". I took it
- to mean the practice of making inferences from the
statistics of
- observations. This is a common procedure leading
to the formulation of
- theories, for instance the theory that all swans
are white, which will be
- disproven as soon as a black swan is observed.
- I don't know much about "accepted protocols of
data analysis" and it
- never struck me that experimental psychologists
should construct them
- "out of an explanation of an unexpected
experience". It seems to me that
- such protocols were established so that different
- observers/experimentalists could compare their
statistical results more
- or less fairly. The inferences they draw from the
statistics may or may
- not lead the psychologists to formulate a theory
and the viability of the
- theory then depends not on the statistics, but on
its usefulness within
- the domain of observations that led to its
formulation.
-
- The intelligence test is, I think, a good example.
The people who
- designed it collected sets of questions the
answering of which, they
- thought, required intelligence. Then they
statistically evaluated the
- answers of students and produced an "intelligence
quotient". The fact
- that it does not represent what we normally think
of as intelligence
- does not impede its use and it will be considered
viable as long the
- users find it a useful way of classifying
students.
-
- One expression in your letter of December 8th that
suggests you are
- looking for "absolute" viability is the following:
"when this explanation
- holds empirically (is tenable, viable) it is
accepted as a theory, as
- long as not a new unexpected finding comes up." -
Newton's theory of
- gravitation and the structure of the universe is
perfectly viable for
- NASA's enterprises, although it has been
superseded by Einstein's theory.
- Also when dealing with light, physicists use two
incompatible theories as
- explanatory devices; both are viable depending on
the experimental
- context. (That's why I mentioned the flat earth
theory.)
-
- I do not see how you
connect any of this with hypothetical explanations
- of unexpected experiences. And I do not agree with
your statement that
- the purpose for which a
conceptual structure or theory was constructed
- "cannot but be to explain unexpected experiences".
The concepts of levers
- and pulleys and the
mathematical theories to which they led were
- constructed for the simple purpose of moving or
lifting heavy objects.
- The various theories of aerodynamics used in the
building of cars and
- planes were developed for the purpose of reducing
air resistance, not for
- explaining any unexpected events. (There was
nothing unexpected about air
- resistance, it is a common experiential fact.)
-
- When he has an unexpected experience, a scientist
will try to generate an
- hypothesis of how it could have happened, i.e. he
invents or, as Peirce
- said,"abduces" a rule; but he can call that rule a
theory only when he
- has tested it. The results of these tests are
inductively produced and
- they may well include statistics.